Turkey's Blockade, very well researched Options

[irlandahay]

1. Is the blockade official Turkish policy?

Yes. The blockade was instituted in 1993, in the heat of the Karabagh conflict. It resulted in a total shutdown of land and air communications between Turkey and Armenia. The blockade was relaxed in 1995, only to be tightened again in 2000, this time on account of the French and US Parliamentary debates on the Armenian Genocide of 1915.


2. How does the Turkish government justify the blockade?

Turkey has sought to display its support to Azerbaijan in its war with the Armenians of Nagorno Karabagh. Turkey's calculation was that the Armenian government, aware of the damage done to the country by the blockade, would press the leadership in Nagorno Karabagh to make concessions and expect Turkey to respond in kind. But this policy has not produced the expected results so far.

In 1998, several Parliaments in Europe and in the United States started debating the recognition of the 1915 genocide of the Armenians of the Ottoman Empire. The Turkish government, wrongly blaming Armenia's government for initiating these parliamentary debates, invoked them as an additional motive for maintaining the blockade.


3. Are the blockade and the diplomatic boycott legal?

A diplomatic boycott is an exceptional and threatening measure for a state to take. Nowadays, even warring states maintain diplomatic channels open. From the point of view of written international law the blockade and diplomatic boycott are in breach of the principle requiring the peaceful resolution of conflicts pronounced in the United Nations Charter. This principle is also part of the European "acquis communautaire"--EU law and practice--restated in the "Accession Partnership with Turkey" adopted by the EU Council.

The UN Security Council called on Turkey to allow humanitarian assistance through its blockade on three occasions between 1992 and 1993. The European Parliament fully condemned the blockade in 2000.


4. Is the blockade really an obstacle to Armenia's economic development?

It is the main obstacle to the country's development and is considered as such by all the specialized agencies such as the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization.

The World Bank for instance estimates that Armenia's GDP could increase by 30 to 38 percent and its exports to double if the blockade is lifted.

Armenia, a small landlocked country with virtually no natural resources, needs to trade with its neighbors to develop. However, Turkey and Azerbaijan are closed, in turn considerably increasing the cost of transport to Iran and Georgia, Armenia's other neighbors. Travel through Georgia is so difficult due to civil strife and lawlessness that transport from the Armenian border to the Black Sea is as expensive as transport from New York to Seattle in the US, nearly ten times the distance.

The sectors which could most benefit from the border being reopened are the cement and textile industries, electricity supply, metallurgy, and mineral resources. Armenia should also play a key role in the transit of oil, gas, and other commodities. The country is a natural crossing point between the Mediterranean Sea and Central Asia.


5. What can Europe do about the blockade?

The cost of the blockade--from $570 million to $722 million a year--should be compared against the $140 million of foreign aid received by Armenia in 1999. The international community could thus help more by pressing for the blockade to be lifted than it is achieving through all its aid programs put together.

Fortunately, Europe can help. It has a close relationship with Turkey, a partner in NATO and a candidate to join the European Union. Joining the European Union will require that Turkey eventually lift its blockade, as it is a flagrant violation of the "acquis." The European Union, furthermore, assesses Turkey's progress towards EU Standards every year, and provides guidance to Turkey, indicating those changes to be made as a matter of priority.

But the European Commission has so far refrained from even mentioning the blockade in its recommendations to Turkey. By placing the issue on its agenda now, it can hasten the lifting of the blockade and help prevent any further degradation of the situation in the Caucasus.


6. Does the blockade affect the European Union?

The blockade does in fact affect the EU. In the first place, the Union has invested good money in the region's development. Due to the blockade, much of that money is not producing the expected results.

Additionally, the dire economic situation has also caused a massive exodus from Armenia. An estimated 1 to 2 million Armenians have already left the country, many to join the ranks of immigrants in Western Europe. The EU would do itself a favor by pressing for the blockade to be lifted.


7. Isn't Europe asking too much of Turkey?

Turkey is admittedly undergoing a period of difficult domestic transformations, and the EU is rightly wary of causing an anti-EU backlash in Ankara. But opening the Turkish-Armenian border will benefit Turkey as well as Armenia. Many Turkish businessmen, as well as Turkish towns close to the Armenian border have called for a resumption of trade.

By helping Turkey to rethink its policy towards Armenia, the EU would thus help the Turkish economy as well and strengthen the hand of those reformists within Turkey who seek to provide for their country's security by improving relations with its neighbors.


8. Isn't the simplest way of lifting the blockade for Armenia to withdraw from Karabagh?

Unfortunately not. The conflict in Nagorno Karabagh formally involves neither Armenia nor Turkey. Armenia therefore cannot take the decision to withdraw from Karabagh; only the government of the enclave can do so.

The war over Nagorno Karabagh was indeed waged between the government of Azerbaijan and the Armenians of Nagorno Karabagh, who formed a small republic independent of Azerbaijan. Armenia was only drawn into the post-conflict negotiations as a go-between following Azerbaijan's refusal to deal directly with the leadership of Nagorno Karabagh.

While it is true that both Armenia and Turkey are providing some assistance to the warring parties in Karabagh, Turkey's policy of internationalizing a local conflict by sustaining a hostile policy toward its neighbor is a recipe for a dangerous escalation. Such an approach has long been discredited and is contrary to contemporary practice in Europe.

Turkey, furthermore, does not have an impressive track record in the field of conflict mediation. The country did, after all, exterminate its entire Armenian population in 1915; has an appalling record in dealing with national minorities (e.g. Kurds, Assyrians, Alaouis) and with neighboring nations; and has occupied half of Cyprus for the last 25 years. Its bullying of a small neighbor should therefore be granted no legitimacy in the West.