War With Georgia? Options

[veritas]

Hey Guys,

I will not be citing references as these are my own views and opinions.


As most of you will know this poo is about to hit the fan between Russia and Georgia, this is not a Russian backed rebel uprising or skirmish, Russian peacekeepers have been fired on by Georgian troops and the Russians are taking it personally by moving in tank divisions and launching large scale air strikes on strategic targets like ports, oil terminals and airbases in Georgia proper.

They have not declared war as such, but this is merely a formality of paperwork at this stage and it will be expected within the next couple of days.

Most Armenians are well aware of the mutual protection pact between Russia and Armenia, so this will in all likely hood cuase a chain reaction throughout the Caucasus if Armenia becomes involved.

What are the views of the Armenians on this board ? there is a huge Armenian population in Georgia how will this affect any decisions?

Armenia will really have no choice if Russia asks it to become involved so this is a very real posibility at this point in time. It does indeed look as if the boiling cauldren of the Caucasus is about to boil over.

Let me know what you think..................

[Yerevan]

It has been a looong time since the last time I participated in this forum.
The situation is pretty bad for Armenia because if the border with Georgia is closed our unly route will be true Iran. The western news and Russian news both have very different views about the conflict between Georgians and Russians. My opinion is that Georgians are gonna get their ###### kicked by the Russians and they already regreted what they did. In my opinion Sahakashvilli AKA the pouppet of US was timing and planning the whole thing as he promised his people that he is going to reunite South Osetia and Abkhazia to Georgia. He waited untill all the heads of states left for China and attacked South Osetia thinking that the word would not pay much attention to it and eventually US will back them up. It was a cowardly move by him.Usually on the opening day of the Olympic games countries who are at war with each other stop the fighting at least for that day, but Sahakashvili attackes innocent women and children. Even though US supplies weapond and trains Georgian soldiers it already made public that US will not get involved in the conflict. Georgia knows very well that they can not do anything against Russians and it is calling for a cease fire. But it is a little too late. Russia will teach them a gooooood lesson. Georgian press reported that Russians bombed the area very close to baku-cheyhan pipeline. I only home that they actually do bomb the damn pipeline as it will do major damage to azeris. Long story short Georgians should of never attacked South Osetia and killed innocent civilians and Russian soldiers in the first place, and now Russia is answering with major ###### wooping.

[veritas]

Yo Yereven


I totally agree with you in that Georgia is in for the ###### whoopin of a life time and that they thought the US would back them up...........not gonna happen.


While the US has huge interests in keeping the pipeline running ( poti oil terminal got flattend by Russia in the first hours they are not nearly as big an interest as keeping russia onside with the many political movements they are making.

The border will not be closed, there are soooo many Armenians just on the other side of that border it just cannot be done. If Russia does declare a full war ( very possible ) then Armo's HAVE to jump in.

then the border will be open by force.


Abkhaz has been really quiet during all of this, if Rusia makes a proper move then they will also have to jump in, a three fronted war for Georgia being the result. My prediction is about 10 days before total military collapse into guerilla war. Georgia just cannot do this. Not anywhere near enough cash or hardware to pull that off.

the region is such a bloody melting pot, all it will take is for the Azeri's to throw into the mix and there is a real potential for a huge conflict involving Turkey Russia the states and many more.

i guess we wait and see over the next few weeks.

[Hosank]

well
good news is that the war didn't really disrupt trade to armenia, and infact brought some goergian trade as well.

the pipeline itself had been cut days before the war by the PKK, so ...

there are also armenian is abkhazia and north-ossetia, so in that respect, armenians are all over the place, and i think the position the armenian government took on the issue was recomendable. unlike the azeris, who at the start of the war were very supportive of georgia 'taking back these evil break aways from the dirty russians' and when their army was rooted, ended up signing peace and trade deals with russia...
armenia took no side in the conflict, recognising the importance of partnership with both georgia and russia. armenia even made sure that the giumri russian military base not be used during the war.

but anyways...i don't see why anyone would believe the whole 'russia human rights intervention', anyone who visits grozny today will see how russia responds to human rights.
anyways, since the guns have silenced, and body counts have been made, turns out that the russian estimate of 2 thousand ossets killed in the first couple days of war was false, and the number is in the hundreds, infact, more georgians ended up dying in the conflict than ossets. so just another stupid ethnic war, mixed with global geopolitics to add to the list in the caucasus..

i just wish those who died in the name of stupidity rest in peace

[KHAZARI]

i just wish those who died in the name of stupidity rest in peace

amen